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Contact Support →Troubleshooting: Inaccurate Predictions
If Stock Sentry's stockout predictions seem off, here's how to improve accuracy.
Common Causes
1. Promotional Spikes
Issue: Sale/promotion causes temporary surge in sales
Impact: Velocity artificially inflated, predictions too aggressive
Solution:
- Temporarily increase alert thresholds during promotions
- Use longer lookback period (30 days) to smooth spikes
- Return to normal settings after promotion
2. Seasonal Products
Issue: Sales patterns vary by month/season
Impact: Off-season predictions inaccurate
Solution:
- Enable seasonal learning in Settings
- Manually adjust thresholds seasonally
- Use 90-day lookback for seasonal context
3. New Product Launch
Issue: Launch week has abnormal velocity
Impact: First month predictions unreliable
Solution:
- Wait 30 days for data to stabilize
- Use conservative thresholds initially
- Monitor manually during ramp-up
4. Irregular Sales Patterns
Issue: Product sells in bursts, not steadily
Impact: Velocity varies wildly day-to-day
Solution:
- Use longer lookback period (30 days minimum)
- Consider Shopify's low-stock alerts instead
- Check "confidence level" indicator
Adjusting Lookback Period
The lookback period dramatically affects accuracy:
7 days: Best for trending products, very responsive
14 days (default): Good balance for most products
30 days: Best for stable, consistent sellers
90 days: Best for seasonal planning
To change:
- Go to Settings
- Find "Velocity Calculation"
- Select lookback period
- Save changes
Understanding Confidence Levels
Stock Sentry shows confidence for each prediction:
High (80%+): Trust the prediction
Medium (50-80%): Use with caution
Low (<50%): Treat as rough estimate
Low confidence indicates:
- Insufficient sales data
- Irregular pattern
- Recent changes in velocity
Best Practices
For Accurate Predictions
- [DO] Use appropriate lookback period for product type
- [DO] Adjust thresholds before promotions
- [DO] Monitor confidence levels
- [DO] Review velocity trends weekly
What to Avoid
- [AVOID] Short lookback for seasonal products
- [AVOID] Ignoring confidence indicators
- [AVOID] Same settings for all products
- [AVOID] Dismissing all alerts as inaccurate
Still Having Issues?
If predictions remain inaccurate after adjustments, contact support with:
- Product name and typical sales pattern
- Lookback period being used
- Screenshot of velocity chart
- Recent order history